What's behind the Burmese talks?
source : BBC
By regional analyst Larry Jagan
The international community has cautiously welcomed
the news that Burma's opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi has met the country's military leaders.
This was the first such face-to-face meeting for more
than six years and therefore must be significant.
At least the two sides
appear to be talking to
each other - that's
something that hasn't
happened since before
Aung San Suu Kyi's
release from house arrest
in mid-1995.
But many people of course
remain sceptical that a real
dialogue has actually
begun.
Burma's military rulers have in the past tried to exploit
developments for their own purposes.
At present it is certainly in their interests to show they
are being more conciliatory towards the opposition
leader.
Sanctions
Burma's military rulers are worried about the potential
impact of the International Labour Organisation's
decision late last year to urge their members to step
up pressure on Rangoon to end forced labour and
improve its human rights record.
They fear that many
countries might consider
imposing economic
sanctions against Burma.
At the same time it's quite
clear that the other South
East Asia leaders have
been telling the Burmese
Government privately that
they should be more
conciliatory towards Aung
San Suu Kyi.
The UN envoy Razali Ismail said Mr Mahathir's visit to
Burma last week had been important in helping break
the country's political deadlock.
It is probably no coincidence that immediately on his
return from Rangoon, Mr Mahathir announced plans to
bring in workers from Burma for the construction,
manufacturing and plantation industries.
This will earn much needed foreign currency for
Burma.
Family visit
Sources in the opposition National League for
Democracy say their position has always been clear;
Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD have consistently
appealed to the generals to enter a dialogue.
The problem has always
been the military's
reluctance to do so. But it
does appear that Aung
San Suu Kyi has been
more conciliatory towards
the military recently.
This certainly seems to
have been the case during
the recent visit of her son
Kim, his partner and her
grandson, when Aung San
Suu Kyi allowed the
military to make the travel arrangements.
Some Rangoon residents are now speculating Aung
San Suu Kyi has been mellowed by the time she
spent with her grandson in December.
Asean
But the major problem for Aung San Suu Kyi now is
where can this dialogue process go.
Only in December, at the
EU-Asean meeting in
Laos, the Burmese foreign
minister said the
government was happy to
talk to Aung San Suu Kyi
provided she admitted she
was wrong.
While talks may be under
way there is no evidence
Burma's military rulers are
considering giving up
power or even sharing it.
They have increased the strength of the army and are
busy building an organisational structure to support
them.
The United Solidarity Development Association or
USDA - the government's so-called grassroots civilian
organisation - is growing and boasts more than 10
million members.
The military is also building hospitals and schools for
its own use, opening medical colleges and technical
institutes.
But the army knows there are still major issues it
hasn't been able to tackle such as the country's
massive Aids epidemic, the crisis in education with
most universities still effectively closed, and a rapidly
deteriorating economy.
The military rulers may feel these are issues which
they can discuss with Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD
without compromising their hold on power.
China
The UN envoy Mr Razali seems to have finally helped
start a dialogue of sorts between the two sides.
Although there are few details of what he discussed
with both parties, he says he's keen to find ways of
strengthening the process.
He says he's also prepared to travel anywhere in the
region if it will help maintain the momentum. UN
sources say he's planning to visit China shortly.
Beijing has been one of Burma's most ardent
supporters since the military coup in 1988 brought the
current crop of generals to power.
While it's obviously good the generals and Aung San
Suu Kyi are talking, the international community will
also expect early signs of concrete results.
Releasing the opposition leader from virtual house
arrest and freeing other NLD leaders who are currently
detained would seem like a good place to start.