An Opportunity for Burma to Change

The Nation

Wednesday, January 03, 2001

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is visiting Burma today.It must be a proud moment for him, as the main supporter of Burma's entry into the Asean fold in 1997.His visit is significant because it comes amid the ongoing UN efforts at reconciliation,led by his own countryman, Ismail Razali, the UN's special envoy for Burma.

Then there are the sanctions imposed by International Labour Organisation in November.Predictably, Mahathir's visit will shore up the Rangoon regime and produce a positive result.There are four reasons to explain this possible outcome.

First,it is payback time for the junta leaders. Malaysia has been their loyal friend, especially over the past two years.Indonesia, which once was revered by the Burmese leadership as a model to emulate,has turned into a democracy, albeit fragile. In the early 1990s, Malaysia was the main critic of Burma because of the latter's harsh treatment of the Rohinya, Burmese Muslims living along the border of Burma and Bangladesh.Even though the rough treatment continues, Kuala Lumpur's interests have changed, and so has its position on the Rohinya.

Secondly, Razali must succeed in his current effort. Both as a UN envoy and as an adviser to Mahathir, the stakes for Razali are high and intertwined. The veteran diplomat already has strong support from Thailand and Asean, Japan and the UN Security Council. Combined with Mahathir's visit, it would be a win-win situation for Burma and Malaysia. The junta can nail two birds with one stone. Mahathir can prove that he can make a difference in Burma, or at least encourage the junta to adopt economic reforms and engage the outside world. It is not known just how far he would go to urge the junta to jump-start a political dialogue with the opposition. As prime minister, he does not have a good track of record of demonstrating an ability to constructively engage the opposition in his own country. But this effort is at the top of Razali's agenda.The UN has urged the junta to initiate political dialogue with the opposition.

Thirdly,if Mahathir's trip can break the current impasse, it would encourage countries like Japan and China to get involved in the process to help Burma. The European Union has also decided to dispatch a fact-finding team to Burma. Japan has already worked out a two-year economic restructuring plan for Burma. Any positive sign from Burma after Mahathir's trip would give Tokyo further momentum to provide additional technical assistance to Burma. It would do the same for China, which so far has been reluctant to assert any pressure. Having gained from unchallenged access to Burmese resources and strategic imperatives, Beijing knows full well that it can no longer stay idle in the Burmese situation. Any move by China would depend on the outcome of Mahathir's visit.

Finally, the uncertainty surrounding the future US policy toward Burma also ensures that Rangoon needs to be forthcoming.The incoming US administration under President-elect George W Bush is expected to take a tougher stand against Burma than that of President Bill Clinton. Bush's security and foreign policy advisers have already indicated that they would not soften the US position on Burma. In fact, further economic sanctions on textiles and apparel are being sought at the moment. Any pre-emptive measure to disarm this policy would serve Rangoon's interests.

It is irreversible that Burma must change to move ahead with the world of the 21st century.This will be the best time to do so. With Mahathir's personal assistance and risk-taking, this is a great opportunity for Burma to change.