A Ray of Hope

Talks between the junta and Aung Sang Suu Kyi are greeted with cautious optimism By Bertil Lintner/BANGKOK
Issue cover-dated January 25, 2001

BURMA'S MILITARY LEADERS may appear to have made a New Year's resolution to make up with the opposition, but don't bet on it. Hopes of a breakthrough followed the unexpected announcement in early January that the generals had opened a dialogue with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who heads the beleaguered opposition National League for Democracy.

The news was generally welcomed with cautious optimism, though analysts did note that it comes at a time when both sides have their backs against the wall.

The government has been under growing international pressure to open a dialogue with the opposition and improve its human-rights record, while the economy is in a desperate state and faces further ruin from International Labour Organization sanctions imposed in November because of the continuing use of forced labour.

The NLD, meanwhile, has been virtually wiped out as a functioning opposition. Suu Kyi and most of the top leadership are in detention, while thousands of followers have been arrested and hundreds of offices shuttered.The announcement that Suu Kyi and the junta's powerful intelligence chief, Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt, had met several times came after Razali Ismail, the United Nations special envoy on Burma, concluded a five-day visit to the country on January 9. He talked to both sides during his trip.

"Mr. Razali was able to confirm that the two sides had started a direct dialogue since last October and that they were satisfied with the results achieved so far in the area of confidence building," the UN said in a statement, adding: "The two sides are expected to start more substantive discussions shortly."

There were soon further signs that the government was adopting a change of approach in its dealings with Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest since she tried to visit party workers in the northern city of Mandalay in late September.For the first time in five years, state-run newspapers halted their vicious daily attacks on Suu Kyi, apparently at the request of Razali. Then junta officials visited NLD headquarters and said 86 jailed supporters would be allowed to receive food parcels and letters.

This is all welcome news. The Thailand-based All Burma Students' Democratic Front hailed the talks as a "historic breakthrough" and "the most positive sign we've seen since the general election held in 1990." In that election, the NLD won 392 out of the 485 seats contested in the first multiparty polls in Burma since 1960. The irate army nullified the results and the assembly has never met.

But most diplomats and analysts are wary, while some fear the junta's real intention is simply to persuade the international community to ease the pressure on Rangoon before it reverts to its bad old ways. "It is a start, but we must not expect results overnight," says Harn Yawnhee, Brussels-based spokesman for the pro-democracy movement in exile. "There is a lot of ground to be covered and a lot of mistrust to be overcome. Anything can happen to derail the process and both sides will have to work hard to keep the process alive. It could be a long process, with many ups and downs and stops before it goes anywhere."

But a Bangkok-based analyst says: "The generals will use the ruse of democracy to get the international community off their backs. They plan to legitimize the status quo under a different guise." He and others say the litmus test of the generals' sincerity will be if they release Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners and allow the reopening of opposition-party offices.

The pessimists note that it's not the first time the generals have held talks with Suu Kyi. She met twice with Khin Nyunt and junta chief Gen. Than Shwe in 1994, during her first long stretch of house arrest. But the talks went no further after Suu Kyi said she was not trying to strike a deal. The difference now is that while there was no significant outside involvement in the earlier talks, the latest ones have been pushed by strong regional interests and the United Nations.The catalyst for change appears to have been the appointment of Razali, a Malaysian, as special envoy to Burma. His appointment came amid mounting frustration in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations--especially in Thailand--at the debilitating effect Burma's membership was having on the bloc's relations with the West, particularly Europe. Burma was inducted as a member in 1997, largely at the behest of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.Razali visited Burma as a representative of the United Nations, but it was no coincidence that Mahathir was in the country at the same time on an official visit. Razali said Mahathir's visit "definitely helped the UN effort" but was a separate Malaysian initiative.

MALAYSIAN CONNECTION

Mahathir, apparently keen to redeem a reputation tainted by his harsh treatment of the opposition back home, focused on the carrot of business and investment in his talks with the Burmese. Diplomats say much of the political spadework was done just before his trip by a visiting team of high-ranking Malaysian officials.Mahathir and these officials made it clear to the generals that donor nations would never accept a situation in which they went ahead and passed a new constitution without the opposition. The generals needed to do more if they were to win Western aid, which was cut after the army crackdown on pro-democracy protests of 1988.

Clearly the generals were feeling the pressure from sanctions and their overseas allies to shape up. But some Burmese fear they will return to past practices by holding a couple of rounds of talks, letting them break down and then blaming it all on Suu Kyi; then they will pass a new constitution to legitimize their rule.

"We have to be cautious. I think sanctions, including the ILO's, are working," says pro-democracy magazine editor Aung Zaw, adding in reference to tensions within the junta: "It also shows that internal conflicts among the top three are tense. Not only the NLD, but the junta itself is in deep trouble. I think Khin Nyunt has to do that as he has been pushed in a corner by his rivals." Those rivals are Than Shwe and army chief Gen. Maung Aye.

Harn Yawnhee is more optimistic. "Given the involvement of Dr. Mahathir, Asean, Razali and the UN secretary-general, I think it will not be a repeat of 1994. I think both sides realize the need to find a solution for the sake of the future of Burma as a nation. Let us wait and see."