Junta ready to soften on Suu Kyi
Source : Amy Kazmin, Financial Times (January 26)
In a Rangoon courtroom this week, Judge U Soe Thein gave a rare break to Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma's pro-democracy leader: the judge threw out a lawsuit by Ms Suu Kyi's estranged brother seeking half of the family house where the Nobel Prize winner now lives under virtual house arrest.
It was a decision aimed at the court of world opinion, one more in a series of small, conciliatory gestures by Burma's military regime towards their long-time adversary. It follows the announcement earlier this month that Ms Suu Kyi and Burma's chief of military intelligence, Lt Gen Khin Nyunt, have held direct talks since October aimed at breaking the long political impasse that has relegated Burma to the margins of the international community.
"To me, it is an indication that they (the junta) don't want to make things worse. They want to make things better," David Steinberg, director of the Asian Studies Institute at Georgetown University, said of the judge's ruling.
The military made another offering on Thursday, releasing Tin Oo, the septuagenarian vice-chair of Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), and more than 80 opposition members, held in custody since Ms Suu Kyi tried unsuccessfully last September to visit party workers in Mandalay.
After years of political stalemate, diplomats and analysts see the tentative change in public posture towards Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD as a reflection of the junta's desire to improve its international image, amid intensifying economic and social pressures at home.
The Burmese currency, the kyat, is rapidly depreciating amid economic stagnation and dwindling investment. A growing Aids epidemic threatens to take a heavy toll on the country, which Khin Nyunt publicly acknowledged this week after past denial. The potential impact of sanctions imposed by the International Labour Organisation last November have also raised fresh uncertainties for the economy.
Even the Association of South East Asian Nations, which embraced Burma as a new member in 1997, has shown impatience as the regime's disdain for human rights has tarnished Asean'sown image.
Prodding from Razali Ismail, the UN special envoy on Burma, and also from trusted friend Mahathir Mohammed, the Malaysian prime minister, appears to have persuaded the junta that engaging Ms Suu Kyi - who has been under virtual house arrest herself since the aborted Mandalay trip - might help turn down the international heat.
Sceptics, of course, recall that Burma's military rulers met twice with Ms Suu Kyi in 1994, then broke off talks, having pronounced Ms Suu Kyi as too inflexible.
This time, the junta's overture follows a vigorous campaign to weaken the NLD, by shutting party offices and detaining members until they "renounce" the party.
Still, there are hopes that the interaction may lead to some incremental concessions, or tentative steps to allow the NLD to function more freely. Mr Steinberg said one sign of progress could be if the stalled efforts to draft a constitution were to resume with the participation of the NLD, which earlier bowed out of the effort.
"Do I believe the government will turn over power to the opposition? No. Do I think there may be some sort of accommodation? That is conceivable," he said. "You're looking at eroding the rigidity of power, rather than changing the structure of power."
For Burma's military rulers, the potential pay-off of a few democratic risks is high. Australia, Japan, and India have already deepened their political contacts with the regime, in part to counter China's ever-strengthening political and economic influence, and several potential donors are clearly ready to boost the flow of aid, if there are signs that Burma is on a path to change.
Japanese businesses, in particular, have been clamouring for their government to resume large-scale development assistance to Burma, but Tokyo has been reluctant to fully break with western sanctions until there are signs of political progress.
"Asean and Japan set some conditions. They have said 'look we don't expect you to become democratic overnight, but you've got to be seen to be doing something'," said one western diplomat based in Bangkok.
A new Republication administration in Washington could also soon face renewed pressure from American companies to re-examine the investment sanctions imposed on Burma, where vice-president Dick Cheney has past business links. A high-level European Union delegation is also due to arrive in Burma next week to assess the situation and express support for any dialogue.
Jan Axel Nordlander, Sweden's ambassador to Thailand, said it was "premature" to discuss the lifting of sanctions, but said the prerequisite to any softening would be "tangible steps towards the reinstatement of democracy and respect for human rights". It looks as if the regime may have taken the first tentative steps on what is nevertheless a long road ahead.