What's behind the Burmese talks?

source : BBC
By regional analyst Larry Jagan

The international community has cautiously welcomed the news that Burma's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has met the country's military leaders.

This was the first such face-to-face meeting for more than six years and therefore must be significant.

At least the two sides appear to be talking to each other - that's something that hasn't happened since before Aung San Suu Kyi's release from house arrest in mid-1995.

But many people of course remain sceptical that a real dialogue has actually begun.

Burma's military rulers have in the past tried to exploit developments for their own purposes.

At present it is certainly in their interests to show they are being more conciliatory towards the opposition leader.

Sanctions

Burma's military rulers are worried about the potential impact of the International Labour Organisation's decision late last year to urge their members to step up pressure on Rangoon to end forced labour and improve its human rights record.

They fear that many countries might consider imposing economic sanctions against Burma.

At the same time it's quite clear that the other South East Asia leaders have been telling the Burmese Government privately that they should be more conciliatory towards Aung San Suu Kyi.

The UN envoy Razali Ismail said Mr Mahathir's visit to Burma last week had been important in helping break the country's political deadlock.

It is probably no coincidence that immediately on his return from Rangoon, Mr Mahathir announced plans to bring in workers from Burma for the construction, manufacturing and plantation industries.

This will earn much needed foreign currency for Burma.

Family visit

Sources in the opposition National League for Democracy say their position has always been clear; Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD have consistently appealed to the generals to enter a dialogue.

The problem has always been the military's reluctance to do so. But it does appear that Aung San Suu Kyi has been more conciliatory towards the military recently.

This certainly seems to have been the case during the recent visit of her son Kim, his partner and her grandson, when Aung San Suu Kyi allowed the military to make the travel arrangements.

Some Rangoon residents are now speculating Aung San Suu Kyi has been mellowed by the time she spent with her grandson in December.

Asean

But the major problem for Aung San Suu Kyi now is where can this dialogue process go.

Only in December, at the EU-Asean meeting in Laos, the Burmese foreign minister said the government was happy to talk to Aung San Suu Kyi provided she admitted she was wrong.

While talks may be under way there is no evidence Burma's military rulers are considering giving up power or even sharing it.

They have increased the strength of the army and are busy building an organisational structure to support them.

The United Solidarity Development Association or USDA - the government's so-called grassroots civilian organisation - is growing and boasts more than 10 million members.

The military is also building hospitals and schools for its own use, opening medical colleges and technical institutes.

But the army knows there are still major issues it hasn't been able to tackle such as the country's massive Aids epidemic, the crisis in education with most universities still effectively closed, and a rapidly deteriorating economy.

The military rulers may feel these are issues which they can discuss with Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD without compromising their hold on power.

China

The UN envoy Mr Razali seems to have finally helped start a dialogue of sorts between the two sides.

Although there are few details of what he discussed with both parties, he says he's keen to find ways of strengthening the process.

He says he's also prepared to travel anywhere in the region if it will help maintain the momentum. UN sources say he's planning to visit China shortly.

Beijing has been one of Burma's most ardent supporters since the military coup in 1988 brought the current crop of generals to power.

While it's obviously good the generals and Aung San Suu Kyi are talking, the international community will also expect early signs of concrete results.

Releasing the opposition leader from virtual house arrest and freeing other NLD leaders who are currently detained would seem like a good place to start.