Whether he wants to admit it or not, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is embarking on what seems to amount to a policy of appeasement with Burma. While marked with good intent, his eagerness to revive good neighbourliness with Thailand's erstwhile adversary is creating more confusion than he had anticipated.
Though he deserves commendation for his "vision" in getting the two countries closer, his advisers definitely will have to remind the prime minister of the need to pay more attention to the fine art of diplomacy and history. Burma is an area far more complex than any other foreign policy issues and its proper handling requires more than just a "CEO-style" of management.
Thaksin's caution to the Army not to "over-react" and his pronouncement of an end to Thailand's policy of using ethnic minority groups as a "buffer state" demonstrates his serious lack of understanding of the fundamentals of Thai-Burmese relations. And it also reflects badly on his administration's stand toward the military regime in Rangoon.
Thaksin made it clear the moment he assumed office that mending fences with Burma would be his one of his administration's top foreign policy priorities. Rangoon was his first overseas trip last June - to be returned by Burma's two highest-ranking generals Lt-General Khin Nyunt in November and General Maung Aye in April. Buoyed by the warm hand- shakes, Thaksin came up with initiatives that he believed would convince Burmese generals of Thailand's "sincerity".Sources close to Thaksin revealed that the prime minister has envisaged a future in which Thailand and Burma would co-exist peacefully without ethnic minorities as a thorn in Rangoon's side, paving the way for mutual cooperation in drug eradication and subsequent closer economic ties. Eager to earn Burma's trust, the sources said Thaksin laid all his cards on the table in his talks with the Burmese generals.
The Burmese generals were also led to believe that Thaksin would be able to contain the army's role, which has been historically dominant in Thai-Burmese relations. It was, however, never made clear if the Army had been consulted by Thaksin.
The Thai premier was apparently unware of the ramifications of his statement. By renouncing the policy of "buffer state", Thaksin was implying that previous Thai administrations had been using minority groups to serve as a buffer between the two countries. The admission is more than likely to play into the hands of the hawkish generals in Rangoon who have been accusing Thailand of aiding the Shan ethnic minority in the current border skirmishes.But more importantly, the remarks are seen as the Thaksin administration's endorsement of Rangoon's use of military force to wipe out ethnic groups resisting Burmese rule from their positions on the Thai-Burmese border, basically killing any idea of possible national reconciliation. The Burmese generals' war against ethnic minorities has been a cause of international condemnation of their atrocities. A "green light" by the Thai political leadership will undoubtedly encourage the Burmese to launch even more brutal assaults on the minorities.
Of course, the border skirmishes must be seen in a larger political context. They are resuming with unprecedented intensity at a time when the international community is expecting more concrete signals of the ruling junta's willingness to bring about national reconciliation following the recent release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Suu Kyi has made it clear that all ethnic minorities must be involved in the process of national reconciliation - something which the generals in Rangoon do not necessarily agree with. Some analysts have even suggested that the renewed war against the Shan - the only remaining minority group seriously resisting Burmese rule - was designed to divert attention from Burma's internal political situation following Suu Kyi's release.
We have no reason to doubt that Prime Minister Thaksin has Thailand's best interest in mind in his dealings with Burma. But his recent overtures to the ruling junta in Rangoon beg questions about his understanding of the complexity of the issue.
Burma's most fundamental problems stem from the fact that the country is still being ruled by a military dictatorship which has no respect for human rights and democratic values. Even if all the minority groups along the Thai-Burmese border were wiped out, there is no guarantee that the generals in Rangoon would readily go for good neighbourliness with Thailand.
Under Thaksin's leadership, Thailand has softened its stand on democracy inside Burma and is now encouraging a military solution to the ethnic problems on the border. There is no way we can claim this to be a contribution to Burma's national reconciliation.