Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra just does not get it. Or is he pretending? Current Thai-Burmese relations, particularly Rangoon's growing aggression and diplomatic abuses, have been of his own making.
Time and again, Thaksin has suffered from a series of misguided approaches to diplomacy. He has indulged in four-eye meetings, thinking this format was best suited to negotiating and settling bilateral issues. This high-level style of meeting has been praised over here, with Thaksin boosting it as a personalised style of diplomacy. He thinks he can solve festering issues between Thailand and other countries in one-on-one meetings. He had tete a tete with Maung Aye, the powerful Burmese army chief, when he visited Thailand at the end of March. Thaksin promised many things to the Burmese leader. But nobody knows the details.
As a former CEO, he argues that he can sit down and chat with other world leaders. The problem is, after these meetings, Thaksin and Sukakiart give press interviews or comments on the substance of the meetings about which nobody has any knowledge. They tend to exaggerate the outcome and results of their agreements.
When leaders of other countries have four-eye meetings, they debrief their officials to ensure they know the content of the high-level discussions and that agreements will be properly implemented to avoid any ambiguity. That has not been the practice of this government. The meetings are kept confidential, very much to the bewilderment of concerned authorities. In the Maung Aye case, the Army has no knowledge of what was agreed. This leads to speculation that the Thai leader, with his far-flung telecom empire, is talking business in the meetings. Thaksin's inflated view of the success of the Burmese junta leader's visit his own recent visits to the UK and Australia are cases in point. He prefers to interpret the content the way he wants. Fine, as long as it is not related to national security.
This personalised approach and self-serving diplomacy has another serious side effect. It has transformed all aspects of Thai foreign policy into a personal undertaking. That explains why a lack of international support for Thailand's diplomacy, especially in regards to Burma, indicates an erosion of Thai popularity in international forums. No country will be sympathetic to Thailand now that the Thaksin government has chosen to extend its populist policies into the diplomatic realm. Burma has indeed successfully cornered the Thais using business opportunities as bait, and it is coming back to haunt them.
Last year, the Thaksin governmen tsaid Thai-Burmese ties should be expanded and strengthened through trade and economic relations so that shared interests would restrain the junta. Ironically, this has backfired on Thailand. The country used to have moral authority because of its democratic and human rights principles. But Thaksin has been isolating Thailand from the mainstream of the international community through his personalised and business-only diplomacy. His non-stop loose talk has further discounted the country's trustworthiness.
But that is not all. Thaksin seems to think he can just talk his way out of anything, like he does in domestic politics. Lest we forget, Thai-Burma relations are highly complex and no single authority can resolve the longstanding issues, especially when related to border security and ethnic groups. Almost all Thai-Burmese issues are intertwined and cannot be isolated. Thaksin's knight on a white horse attitude and lack of firmness and inconsistency has encouraged Burma to up the ante. The Burmese junta leaders might not have liked the previous government but at least they respected it. For one thing, it meant what it said. It remained unwavering in its approach and unity as both civilians and the military worked hand-in-hand.Thaksin has no clue what the men in uniform are thinking.
Former deputy foreign minister MR Sukhumband Paribatra was right in saying Thaksin's marshmellow comments have tied the hands of the military as it is preventing them from doing their job. The Army refused to use retaliatory force when artillery shells from the Burmese side landed in a district in Chiang Mai prior to the scheduled visit of HM the Queen. But patience ran out. Ironically, Thaksin, who has ferociously stoked Thai nationalism since he came to power, chooses to lay low in the face of Burmese aggression. In the annals of history, few countries have been held hostage by their leader's ignorance and personal interests.
Furthermore, the stalled political dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi continues to haunt the Rangoon regime. The opposition leader has kept her position firm since her release. She has continues to call on the regime to respect the 1990 election result. As always, the junta has used Thai-Burmese tension as a pretext to firm up its position and restrict political freedom - and, if necessary, crack down on any opposition.
Thailand and its leaders have only themselves to blame. This current dispute will have far-reaching implications for Thailand's future relations with other neighbours. Sensing Bangkok's vulnerability and gullibility, other countries might follow Burma's experience and take advantage of Thailand.
Burma is the world's most notorious pariah state and it will remain so for the foreseeable future. Its armed forces are one of the region's biggest. A Burmese leader recently threatened to flatten Ta Songyang in Mae Sod within three days. That has scared Thai business leaders. History tells us when Burma calls Thailand by its old name, Ayutthya, its leaders and troops are ready for war. Ayutthya was weak so it was defeated and burned down by the Burmese. Will history repeat?
It will if Thaksin does not change his gung-ho attitude. Thailand can only engage with the Burmese junta if civil and military leaders are unified and speak with one voice. Thaksin and the army cannot go different ways forever. But Thaksin has chosen to do it alone. Now, he feels that his face is being slapped as he is trying to deliver what he promised personally. Somewhere, somehow, someone will have to pay a high toll for this mess.