If Thaksin fails in Rangoon, it could mean war
source :The Nation-31/05/01
Kulachada Chaipipat
The prime minister's trip to Burma will have crucial consequences regarding hostilities, drug measures and redress for media insults
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's eagerness to visit Rangoon could be a diplomatic catastrophe in the making for Thailand since it could be construed as a sign of weakness in dealing with the dictatorial Burmese junta.
Without being considered nationalistic, the highest-level visit should only take place after Rangoon sends a clear signal that it really wants to make peace with its eastern neighbour.
Moreover, the dust should settle here over who is taking charge of executing Thai foreign policy towards Burma.Apparently, at the moment, the army is speaking very loud and clear - if war fits, wear it! - while Thaksin as a leader cannot calm the discord between Defence Minister General Chavalit and the aggressive army.
Apparently, Rangoon's prime concern is its domestic politics.Its fragile political dialogue with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi would have a far-reaching impact on the survival of military rule. Given high expectations for these talks, both inside and outside the country, their failure could be detrimental to the country's stability.
Nevertheless, a series of border spates with Thailand which began in February have temporarily shifted the focus of attention away from the talks, if not completely. By fanning the hatred of the Burmese against Thailand through the revival of historic hostility, Rangoon hopes to gain popularity among its people. And if the internal rifts within the top echelons of the Burmese leadership are real, a potential war with Thailand could be the only reason for them to keep united.
Similarly, scepticism is high and rising here among military observers that the Thai army is using the same tactic, deliberately or not, to garner political support for the military institution whose image was badly tarnished in the May 1992 crackdown on the pro-democracy movement.In the broader picture, the Thai army is worrying about its diminishing strength amid the perceived existence of a cold war among regional powers, each struggling to wield their political and economic muscles.
It should go down on record that, in no time at all, about six aide memoires about border incidents and media attacks were exchanged by both sides over the past month as if they were mere correspondence with no diplomatic weight. There were at least three known border skirmishes between Thai and Burmese troops and/or Rangoon-allied minority groups.
Against this backdrop, however, Burma is negotiating with Thailand from a position of strength since it still speaks with one voice.As for Thailand, the perceived successful anti-drug campaign has now degenerated into a mere trap used by Rangoon to provoke border incidents over the past few months.
Military observers warn the tide of nationalism fanned on both sides of the border has reached a level of danger that it could be used to justify the rise of militarism in the two countries.They say the use of force, however, had but one effect: torpedoing the current fragile unity of Asean, to which both nations are members and which might eventually invite third parties to intervene.
Nevertheless this begs a question about why Rangoon dared to allow its mouthpiece, The New Light of Myanmar, to publish two articles affronting the Thai monarchy despite the fact that the junta knows how sensitive the issue is to the Thai people.Moreover, Burmese shells that landed on a royal agricultural project at Doi Aungkhang on May 22 was a deliberate act to fan nationalism on the Thai side. Both cases provide enough justification for the Thai army, as an institution closely linked to the monarchy, to react by force. But what are they waiting for?
In the conduct of international relations, military means will be used only when all diplomatic avenues are exhausted. In this case, Thaksin's trip to Burma is Thailand's only trump card after two ministerial trips to Burma and three diplomatic protest notes failed to quell border tensions. If he fails, hostilities could escalate into war.
When the prime minister sits down with foreign affairs and security policy makers tomorrow, he should define clearly what is the current Thai national interest vis-a-vis his anti-drug campaign, which has now proven to be only a short-term gain for the government since its effects have snowballed on the border.
Thus there are only three reasons justifying Thaksin's trip to Burma. Border retaliation and spins on nationalism should end on both sides. The Burmese should make a sincere effort to fight the drug flows originating in the territory of its allied minority groups.After that, Thaksin should get a clear gesture from Rangoon on what is an appropriate remedy to the damage caused by the Burmese media's insults to the monarchy.