Bluster has many possible roots

It is not absolutely clear whether Rangoon is playing to a domestic audience in its tirades against Thailand, is trying to divert attention from its poor record, or is testing Thaksin's foreign policy commitments.

POST REPORTERS -the Bangkokpost (04-06-02)

The anti-Thai invective pouring forth from Rangoon these past few days has been unusual for its vehemence. It will take quite some time for relations between our two countries to get back on anything like an even keel.Is all this brouhaha the result of a few artillery shells landing on the other's soil or is there something deeper to this dispute?

Many believe that the events of the past week or so cannot be seen in isolation. There are too many factors at play, including the release from house arrest on May 6 of Aung San Suu Kyi, the face, heart and spirit of the National League for Democracy which opposes the State Peace and Development Council, the junta's governing vehicle.

The release of Mrs Suu Kyi has been interpreted by some observers as showing the generals feel they can no longer continue to govern their country alone. Burma is an economic shambles and it needs finally to gain some relief from the sanctions imposed upon it by the world community.

The move could also mean Rangoon wants to reassure its few friends that its generals are not totally inflexible.

These allies include Malaysia, which insisted on having Burma as a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in July 1997, and provided Razali Ismail as the United Nations special envoy who did so much to broker a dialogue on national reconciliation between the junta and Mrs Suu Kyi.

Another friend over the years has been China. It has played a big part in Burma's recent political history, first by providing support for the Burma Communist party and later by providing the present regime with the arms it has needed to fight the minority groups which live along its borders. China, according to one Western diplomat here in Bangkok, has grown ``disenchanted'' with the intransigent ways of the junta.

Given the circumstances of Mrs Suu Kyi's release a response to international pressure rather than a domestic desire there are more than a few among the ruling junta who are not at all happy. This bitterness could explain the more recent turn of events.

Another school of thought links the tirades against Thailand to the junta's need to project a more positive image before a domestic public grown frustrated with the generals' inability to run the country properly and introduce a sound economic policy.

There is no better indicator of the dire state of the Burmese economy than its currency, the kyat, and its wide fluctuations on the black market. The currency was trading at 500 kyat against the dollar two months ago, but then plummeted to 955 kyat before gaining some ground to 825 kyat this week. The price of petrol has doubled and the cost of key consumer products has risen sharply since the border with Thailand was closed on May 21.

``The economy is not in good health,'' said one analyst who asked not to be named. ``The economic situation could be behind the top brass's need to use the present stand-off to divert its people from their suffering.''

Reminding people at home that Thais are ``Yodayas'', or members of the former kingdom of Ayutthaya which fell to Burmese troops in 1767, is also a diversion by harking back to past days of glory.This was reinforced by the claim that Yodayas have a history of supporting ``insurgents''. This only further fuelled feelings of patriotism against an enemy believed to be using underhand methods.And there is another school of thought that all this carry-on is just a way of testing the sincerity of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his ability to solve problems between our two countries.

Soon after assuming office 16 months ago, Mr Thaksin made it a chief policy of his government to improve ties with Burma. He fleshed out the policy by hosting a visit to Bangkok by Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt, the junta's intelligence chief, last August, and then a follow up by General Maung Aye, the junta's army chief and the second ranking general in the State Peace and Development Council, in April. Both received the red carpet treatment from the government.The Thai government's policy is clearly aimed at getting Rangoon support for a crackdown on the ethnic Wa and their generally understood massive methamphetamine production and trafficking operation, which has caused so much damage among the Thai public. But the armed forces have long doubted the commitment of Rangoon in hurting the Wa. They say the generals' top priority has been to crush the Shan State Army, an ethnic rival of the Wa.

Security sources say Rangoon wants to use the present stand-off to test the prime minister and his government, to see whether they are truly committed to deepening ties with the Burmese and to see how they will handle a military which might disagree with their policy thrust. ``The junta is testing Prime Minister Thaksin to the limit,'' one said.The problem defies any immediate solution, said the same security source, as Burma does not find it ``convenient'' to accept any visit by Thai officials for the time being.

Whatever the cause or causes of all this bluster, it is gnawing at Mr Thaksin's power base by challenging his stated policy of taking demonstrative charge of international relations.If he he loses this battle, the prime minister could well lose the political clout necessary to seek more power over domestic policy issues.