The "personal" diplomatic style has not helped Thailand mend soured relations with Burma since the junta's generals at present are not in the mood for reconciliation and probably will not be until they defeat the rebellious Shan minority whom they believe to be proxy of the Thai military, analysts say.Rangoon has mobilised thousands of troops to border areas near Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, moving to liquidate Yawd Serk's Shan State Army (SSA) which has fought against the military-ruled government for decades.The Number 2 leader of the junta, General Maung Aye, believes Burmese troops will easily win the battle unless the SSA gets support from Thailand.
Relations between the two countries have been sour since last month after exchanges of artillery shelling between Thai and Burmese troops.Rangoon accused the Thai military of firing the shells to support Shan fighters during a series of attacks on Burmese outposts that left some 30 Burmese soldier dead, including a commander with the rank of colonel.Leaders in Rangoon were angry when they saw pictures of the damage to their outposts, some of which showed the Thai flag raised over Burmese territory, a military source said.
The Thai military rejected the accusation, saying that a "third party" manipulated the situation in order worsen relations between the two countries."The raising of a Thai flag over the captured areas does not automatically mean Thai military was involved in the attack," said General Sanan Kajornklam, a close aid to the defence minister. "Anybody can to that to broaden the conflict."
Burmese leaders, notably Maung Aye who had just left Bangkok days before the border skirmishes, never listen to such excuses since they have a stereotype that Thai leaders are the most untrustworthy people.Maung Aye had a bad experience with Thai military leaders ten years ago when his request to see then Army chief General Vimol Vongvanich was rejected due the personal emotions of the Thai military leader.Maung Aye, then a major general, was assigned to have a meeting with Thai military officers to patch up conflicts over the hill No 491 border area near southern Chumpon province. The meeting produced no concrete results and Maung Aye refused to sign a document listing the meeting's minutes, which led to Vimol's anger.
Maung Aye, who is also the vice-chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is the key person for deciding whether to resume relations with Thailand but he is not presently predisposed to do so, said Sanan.
Thai officials, including Defence Minister General Chavalit, failed in several attempts to establish contact with Maung Aye. Only Lt-General Khin Nyunt - regarded as a political rival of Maung Aye - is available to talk with Thailand but he has no mandate to make any decision.
The heavy investment by the current Thai government to turn Maung Aye's attitude toward Thailand into a positive one by giving him a high-profile welcome during his visit in April probably was a big failure. Maung Aye himself blocked a proposal for official bilateral negotiations.But there remains no choice. Sanan said it has already been proved that normal diplomatic channels never work since the junta's ruling style is based on charismatic leadership. Officials at the Burmese Foreign Ministry have no influence on decision-makers.
Sanan said that the personal relations between Chavalit and his friends in Rangoon were used to mend conflicts caused by border skirmishes in February 2001 when Thai para-militia clashed with Burmese troops in Chiang Rai."A few military officers on both sides met during a funeral ceremony for the late Burmese Chief of State Lt-General Tin Oo who was killed in a helicopter crash. The meeting led to good relations during the past year," he said.
Burmese affairs expert Sunait Chutintaranond cautioned that playing the Maung Aye card will be risky for the national interest in the long run since Burmese internal politics are so complicated.The rivalry between Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt is real and it is difficult to say who has the best chance to run the country after Than Shwe who now holds the top post in the junta, controlling the government and the armed forces.
As the army chief, Maung Aye has military power, but intelligence chief Khin Nyunt is credited with possessing charismatic leadership. He is the person who was hoisted atop the Shwedagon pagoda, which simply means that his charisma is as high as a king's.A similar event took place 128 years ago when King Mindon, who built Mandalay Palace, was hoisted atop the golden pagoda, said Burma expert Sunait.
Burmese military personnel may compete with each other to obtain political power but the military will unite whenever it faces a challenge from outside the junta.
Aung San Suu Kyi who was freed from 19 months of house arrest last month is the new visible challenge. She is now strengthening her opposition party, the National League for Democracy.
Thailand needs to be aware of the fight between the junta and Suu Kyi since repercussions of the political struggle will be felt in neighbouring countries, a military source said.Conflicts with Thailand will not be solved till the junta finds measures to control the opposition, he said.