Pakistani connection
India's coddling of Myanmarese military dictators hasn't helped a bit, writes J Mohan Malik
The Pioneer (New Delhi) December 19,2001
Myanmar’s military junta, known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), has granted sanctuary to two Pakistani nuclear scientists following a telephone call from General Pervez Musharraf. The two scientists, Dr Suleiman Asad and Dr Mukhatar have been actively involved in the development of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme and the US intelligence of officials had Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaida network.
They were apparently moved out of the country to avoid the fate that befell their two other counterparts, Dr Bashiruddin Mehmood, the former chief of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, and Chaudhury Abdul Majit. Both Mehmood and Majid have been questioned by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) officials on their alleged links with Osama bin Laden and Taliban and are now under "protective custody" of Pakistani security forces.
Myanmar’s offer of asylum to two fugitives from Pakistan will certainly not go down well with the Bush Administration, which is now extremely worried about the threat of nuclear terrorism. Nor does it bode well for Myanmar’s relations with India.
The revelation of Myanmar’s links with Pakistan’s nuclear establishment also assumes significance in light of reports about Yangon’s recent purchase of a nuclear reactor for research purposed and a dozen sophisticated MiG-29 fighters form Russia and conventional arms shopping in North Korea. It shows that whilst China remains the main supplier of military hardware and economic aid to sources of military supplies from Pakistan, Russia and North Korea. Pakistan has been providing small conventional weapons and training to Myanmarese armed forces, and has joined China in concluding and intelligence sharing agreement with Myanmar regarding India’s force deployments in the north-east and the Bay of Bengal.
The Chinese strategists see Myanmar occupying the same place in China’s calculus of deterrence vis-à-vis India in South-Southeast Asia that Pakistan does in South-Southwest Asia. On April 13, General Fu Quanyou, Chief of the General Staff of China’s People’s Libration Army, was in Myanmar discussing the development of airfields and naval bases before flying off to the strategically located Indian Ocean island nation of the Maldives and then to its old ally, Pakistan.
Interestingly, Pakistani leader General Musharraf also paid an official visit to Yangon in April this year, the first ever by a Pakistani leader, and expressed his country’s "desire to get closer to Myanmar". Even more intriguingly, General Musharraf’s visit was proceeded by port calls by three Pakistani naval ships (a frigate, submarine and fleet tanker) to Myanmarese ports following the first ever Bangladeshi-Pakistani joint naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal in 30 years (since East Pakistan became the independent state of Bangladesh). The Indian media reported that neither country had given New Delhi prior notification of the naval exercised. This aroused concerns in India’s strategic community that Pakistan-Bangladesh-Myanmar naval rendezvous had “Beijing’s blessings” (unconfirmed sources claim that a Chinese submarine was docked at one of the Myanmarese ports at that time). These developments not only signal the failure of India’s policy of "constructive engagement" with the Myanmarese military junta but also mark the beginning of "the transformation of Bay of Bengal into the Bay of Beijing for all practical purpose".
Fearful of rising Chinese influence in Myanmar, and support for cross-border insurgencies in India’s north-eastern states, New Delhi abandoned its support for pro-democracy forces in 1993 and embarked upon forging multifaceted relationship with its eastern neighbour. However, far from weaning Yangon away from China’s orbit, India’s coddling of Myanmarese military dictators has actually seen an increase in Chinese as well as Pakistani influence in that country so much so that the regime does not worry about incurring the wrath of the international community by providing refuge to nuclear scientist form Pakistan.
Myanmarese military junta’ crackdown on the bases of rebel groups operating in India’s north-east need not delude the defence establishment into a false sense of security. Nine insurgent groups form this region met recently to form a coordinating committee. India’s north-eastern states, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal are now fast emerging as the epicetre of terrorism and insurgencies. Myanmarese police intercepted in early November a Chinese shipment of 300 assault rifles bound for Nepal Maoists in Myanmar’s northwestern region bordering India. Pakistan sees the return of Islamic fundamentalist forces-backed Khaleda Zia to power in Dhaka as a major gain for its foreign policy strategy in the region.
If India’s borders with Bangladesh and Nepal become as active as India’s borders with Pakistan and Myanmar, it will serve China’s strategy of India keeping pre-occupied within the geostrategic confines of South Asia. General Musharrafs visit to China and Bangladesh. President Jiang Zemin’s December visit to Myanmar, and the Vajpayee Government’s efforts to woo the United States, Japan and Vietnam signal and intensifying geopolitical rivalry in Southern Asia.
Meanwhile, domestic situation in Myanmar remains volatile. There has been no breakthrough in secret talks aimed at resolving the 10-year standoff between the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the ruling military junta. Some commentators are even suggesting that the time may have come for Suu Kyi to leave Myanmar and to go into exile to promote the cause of democracy as the Dalai Lama does for his country.
Besides, all is not well within the ruling military junta. The dismissals of Deputy Prime Minister Lt Gen Tin Hla and Third Secretary Lt Gen Win Myint in mid-November, and the death of General Tin Oo (a leading supporter of SPDC vice-chairman. Lt Gen Maung Aye but a main rival to powerful military intelligence chief Lt Gen Khin Nyunt) in a mysterious helicopter crash in February are signs of a power struggle at the top between Khin Nyunt (seen widely as pro-China) and Maung Aye (Who is being wooed by India). It is noteworthy that, in a careful balancing act last year, Khin Nyunt decided to visit Islamabad just when his rival Maung Aye was in New Delhi.
For India, it is unwise to put all eggs in the military junta’s basket. India, Thailand, US and Japan need to coordinate their policy responsed to the Myanmarese military regime. New Delhi could use its support for the Myanmarese democratic forces as a bargaining chip to induce Yangon to introduce changes in domestic and external policies conducive to peace and stability in the region. Otherwise, a series of recent developments have the potential to turn the pariah state of Myanmar into a rogue state. Over the long term, Myanmar’s only hope lies in the emergence of vertical split within the military into pro- and anti-democracy factions (with pro-democracy faction aligning itself with Suu Kyi’s NLD, similar to what happened to the Philippines armed forces in the mid-1980s).
(The author is a Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, USA. These are his personal views)