Behind Burma's 'non-coup'
source : BBC(16-03-02)
By BBC regional analyst Larry Jagan in Rangoon
As investigations into last week's alleged "coup" attempt in Burma continue, there is increasing scepticism inside the country about the alleged plot to overthrow the government. Instead, diplomats and analysts are asking if the military government's moves against a prominent family may signal a wider willingness for change.
More than 20 senior soldiers and police are still being questioned about the alleged coup, according to military sources in Rangoon. These are believed to be the people whose names appeared on a list that was drawn up by Sandar Win, the daughter of the former military leader General Ne Win.
Four senior officers have already been sacked, including two regional commanders. Many more arrests and sackings are expected in the next few weeks. Although only Ne Win's son-in-law, Aye Zaw Win, and his three sons have been detained, privately the military have made it clear that they believe that Sandar Win is in fact the ring leader.
Brigadier General Kyaw Win told journalists that if evidence was unearthed which implicated her, then she would be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
So far they have not hinted whether they thought General Ne Win, now in his 90s, had been involved. Despite the government's carefully orchestrated show-down with the Ne Win family, there is increasing scepticism in Burma surrounding the allegations of a plot to overthrow the government.
There is no doubt that the Ne Win family were trying to re-establish some of the power and influence the family name used to wield in Burmese politics, and that they felt they were not getting the perks and privileges they thought they were due.
"Over the past 18 months Sandar Win and her children have been increasingly side-lined," said a western diplomat in Rangoon who did not want to be identified. "They were growing increasingly bitter and often complained that the government had turned against them."
Sandar Win even consulted a soothsayer who told her that the Ne Win family empire would never re-emerge. "This seems to have sent her into a mad frenzy," said a source close to the family.
There is also no doubt that the Ne Win off-spring then began to canvass support among as many senior ranking soldiers as they could. "But this is a far cry from trying to organise a physical take-over of power," said an Asian diplomat.
Car scam
So far those who have been sacked have all been connected to the family through business interests. One of them, Brigadier General Chit Than, the regional commander of the Golden Triangle area which borders China and Thailand, was axed because he allowed the family to import cars from Thailand without import licences, according to a senior military source.
Observers in Rangoon believe that the top Generals are using the antics of the Ne Win family as a pretext to root out some of the senior officers who are guilty of excessive corruption. This was a process that began last November with the sacking of two top Generals and five government ministers.
Burma's south-east Asian neighbours have all been telling the regime it needs to liberalise the economy and curb corruption if the country is to develop.This is one of the key issues the UN special envoy to Burma Razali Ismail has been stressing to the ruling junta on his frequent visits to Rangoon.
Initially the move against the Ne Win family was seen as part of a power struggle within the military, particularly on the issue the confidential talks between the regime and the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. But the Generals have been at pains to say that it will not affect the dialogue process. In fact UN officials are encouraged by these developments and believe they may even hasten progress in the talks.
"The Generals have now taken a totally unexpected step and done something which most people - inside and outside the country - would never have dreamt they would do," said a UN official who declined to be identified. "It's a step in the direction of reform rather than a retreat to the past," he said. "If they can do that, they can do anything, releasing Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest should be easy now."
On the streets of Rangoon, the fall of General Ne Win's family has been met by muted euphoria. Many people now hope that the Generals may act just as decisively on the issue of political reform.