Political infighting weakens Burma
STRATFOR.COM's
Global Intelligence Update
Feb 20, 2001
Summary
Lieutenant-General Tin Oo, Secretary 2 of Myanmar's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and chief of staff of the army, died in a helicopter crash on February 19. Tin Oo's death is likely to accelerate the factional struggle within the SPDC, as the more liberal factions see an opportunity to acquire some of the conservatives' waning power. The political infighting threatens not only Yangon's stability, but also threatens already strained relations with Myanmar's neighbor Thailand.
Analysis
Lieutenant General Tin Oo, Secretary 2 in Myanmar's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and chief of staff of the army, died in a helicopter crash on February 19. According to official state media, the crash resulted from inclement weather. Earlier reports from Myanmar and Thailand, however, have cited the cause of the crash as engine failure or an attack by ethnic rebels.
Tin Oo, No 4 in the SPDC hierarchy, was responsible for military operations and economic affairs. He advocated a strong response to Myanmar's numerous ethnic and political opposition groups and reportedly survived three assassination attempts in the last five years. His death will likely stir an internal power struggle within the SPDC between hard-line leaders and a competing pragmatic faction. The internal political strife threatens not only Yangon's stability, but will further strain relations with Myanmar's neighbor Thailand.
For several years, the SPDC leadership has been embroiled in an internal power struggle over who will replace the aging chairman, Senior General Than Shwe. At the center of the battle are SPDC Vice Chairman and army Commander in Chief General Maung Aye and SPDC Secretary 1 and Chief of the Directorate of Defense Services Intelligence Khin Nyunt, the respective No 2 and No 3 within the ruling council.
Maung Aye holds the support of the armed forces, and as vice chairman stands to inherit the leadership role from Than Shwe. The more pragmatic Khin Nyunt, who has less support from the military, instead has been instrumental in arranging peace deals with various ethnic rebel factions and promotes a more moderate and economically open Yangon.
Tin Oo, a hard-line element in the SPDC, was rumored to be Maung Aye's choice for SPDC vice chairman, supplanting Khin Nyunt in the ruling junta. Sources in Myanmar say that Khin Nyunt has long wanted Tin Oo dead, suggesting previous assassination attempts were part of the internal power struggle. With Tin Oo gone, both Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt will move to fill the vacuum with their own supporters.
While the competition heats up inside Yangon, relations with neighboring Thailand may suffer. Bangkok and Yangon share a contentious relationship, due largely to Myanmar's ethnic armies and drug cartels along the border. During the term of former Thai prime minister Chuan Leekpai, Bangkok pulled back from contact with Yangon, sending relations into an even deeper spiral. Thailand's new Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, elected February 9, has pledged to reopen the stalled contact with Yangon.
On the same weekend that Thaksin was elected, however, clashes between the Myanmar army and Thai army broke out around the Thai border town of Mae Sai in Chiang Rai province. The fighting, a spillover from Myanmar's annual spring offensive against ethnic Shan rebels, left at least 19 dead on both sides of the border, according to The Associated Press.
While the fighting subsided after three days, a war of words between the neighbors continued to intensify. Thailand accused Myanmar of violating its territory and shelling civilians in an artillery barrage. Thaksin, who had earlier suggested his first official foreign visit would be to Yangon, criticized Myanmar for allowing some ethnic minority groups on the border to produce drugs. Thaksin added that if diplomatic means proved insufficient to solve the long-standing border issue, "We will have to deal with it in our own way, and this is an assertive policy," according to the Times of India.
For its part, Yangon repeated allegations that the Thai military supports the ethnic Shan rebels, giving them sanctuary and even supplying them with landmines and other explosives. Official Myanmar media said Thailand was suspected of reinvigorating a 50-year-old concept of "Greater Thai Policy" which called for the annexation of parts of Laos, Myanmar and China.
With increasing numbers of troops on both sides of the border, the situation remains tense. On February 19, Thai cabinet members, including the foreign minister and defense minister, emphasized they no longer had plans for any official visits to Yangon. For its part, Yangon played up fears of a Thai military coup, releasing an editorial in the official New Light of Myanmar that politicians and military officers in Thailand were stirring border problems and arming ethnic rebels in order to undermine Thaksin's intentions of rebuilding ties with Myanmar.
Tin Oo's death further complicates efforts for the two sides to reconcile. While state media blamed weather for the crash, radio reports in Thailand and Myanmar suggest ethnic Shan rebels shot down his helicopter - the very group Thailand has been accused of supporting.
Acceleration of infighting within the SPDC ranks will cause settling the border rift with Thailand to take the back seat. Worse, the political wrangling in Yangon could lead to two different sets of negotiations with Thailand, likely leading to more chaos.