Triangle of Suspicion
source : Irrawaddy.org
Rivalries between two of Burma’s top three leading generals are set to intensify, as Number One prepares to step down and external pressures continue to heat up.
by Aung Zaw
As Burma is a closed society, the secret lives and true nature of the ruling military leaders are little known to the public. In some cases, it is also extremely difficult for pundits to identify who belongs to the "moderate" and "hard-line" camps. However, over the past 12 years, abundant evidence supports persisting rumors of an internal rivalry and power struggle among the top leaders who have ruled Burma since 1988.
To some extent, it is safe to say that there are two major groups that have emerged in the ruling junta, which is now known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt leads one group, while Gen Maung Aye heads the other. Today, deep inside their minds, these military leaders must feel that their unity is fragile. Though they attempt to show in public that they are very close, in reality that may not be the case anymore.
An interesting example of conflict between the top generals took place in September last year at Mandalay Airport. Prior to the official opening of the Mandalay International Airport, the two top leaders arrived separately for a regular inspection. Gen Maung Aye, vice-chairman of the SPDC, entered the airport and asked who was responsible for the flowerpots in the interior reception area for official guests. When the general heard that it was Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, he asked officials to re-decorate the pots and change the design. The accompanying guests and officials could easily see Maung Aye’s fury.
Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, Secretary One of the SPDC and intelligence chief, who came to inspect the airport before Maung Aye, probably heard of that incident and must be aware of the threat to his power in the future. The two men clearly don’t see eye to eye. Indeed, informed sources and regional publications now suggest that the powerful spymaster has been losing his power. Maung Aye, who is grooming himself to take over as SPDC chairman, is preparing to step in. That news worries many people in Rangoon.
In July last year a group of influential Burmese businessmen from Rangoon went unannounced to Bangkok. The reason was that they thought a major re-shuffle was about to take place and Maung Aye would become Number One. As Maung Aye is known to be critical of economic liberalization, the Rangoon businessmen thought that such a change would be bad for business.
In fact, these businessmen weren’t alone. In January 2000, powerful ethnic Wa leaders who had reached a cease-fire agreement with the Rangoon regime in 1989 held an important meeting (Khin Nyunt is the architect of almost all cease-fire agreements). At the meeting, they discussed the on-going rift between Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt. An impatient Wa leader reportedly asked his subordinates whom they should back if the two fall out. The outcome of the heated meeting was to back Khin Nyunt.
Gen Maung Aye entered the airport and asked who was responsible for the flowerpots
in the interior reception area for official guests.
When the general heard that it was Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt...
the accompanying guests and officials could easily see Maung Aye’s fury.
On another occasion last year, ethnic representatives from northern Burma held regular discussions with high-ranking intelligence officers in Rangoon. The unusually quiet intelligence officers reportedly told visiting representatives, "We have to stay low key, as tensions (between Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt) are high. We have to be careful as the Maung Aye group is gaining more control," the officer reportedly told that group and asked them to give their full backing to Khin Nyunt.
Subsequently, well-informed sources said that Maung Aye, who is officially higher than Secretary One, asked Khin Nyunt to report to him whenever he makes trips to the interior of Burma and abroad. Recently, flyers believed to be from the Maung Aye faction were circulated in Rangoon, which said: "The country is ruled by the army". Such occurrences indicate that Khin Nyunt is increasingly isolated and looking for potential allies, analysts in Rangoon told The Irrawaddy.
Khin Nyunt’s immediate hopes of holding on to power rest with the groups that have negotiated a cease-fire (particularly the ethnic Wa), as well as with international pressure, dialogue with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and cooperation with Japanese officials involved in helping him to formulate his economic policies. These form the potential backbone for his survival, remarked a political analyst familiar with politics at the War Office in Rangoon.
At home, Khin Nyunt has gradually built up his kingdom. In 1994, he created a think-tank group called the Office of Strategic Studies (OSS). Highly educated intelligence officers from the Navy, Air Force and Army, who are fluent in English, outward looking and familiar with international relations, are recruited for this department. Apart from establishing the OSS, Khin Nyunt has expanded his power base over the influential intellectual community in Burma by building up personal relations with well-known filmmakers and artists. Over recent years, he has somehow gained a considerable amount of backing from those people, though previously no army faction had ever been able to get close to them.
Unlike Maung Aye, who is also Army Commander-in-Chief and has the backing of the Army, Khin Nyunt is working hard to get a wide range of support from intellectual groups and scholars in Burma. Besides them, Khin Nyunt also knows a considerable number of influential officials and diplomats from Asia and the Western world. In some ways, he has managed to convince them that he is a moderate force among the ruling leaders. His current position of Secretary One also makes him strong. Visiting UN and government officials as well as diplomats meet Khin Nyunt, not Maung Aye. Indeed, these connections and his image-building performance have made him untouchable among the ruling clique.
Ironically, the intelligence chief has even been able to utilise international pressure to counter his critics within the ruling clique. "He uses outside criticism to attack his rivals’ policies," a foreign analyst based in Bangkok said. "To some degree, Khin Nyunt and his group are more pragmatic and willing to listen to outside opinions," said the analyst.
Khin Nyunt needs to prove that his proposed policies are working, and more importantly, he needs to demonstrate that he is still valuable to the junta. Thus, he is currently putting his faith in a two-year economic plan worked out with Japanese officials. The recent high-level talks between the junta and Suu Kyi also indicated that Khin Nyunt did his best to convince his rivals and Sr-Gen Than Shwe that they need to respond to international pressure and sanctions. "But there is still strong resistance from the hard-line faction," said a diplomat in Rangoon, adding that the army faction is still reluctant to embrace the opposition.
Analysts believe that Maung Aye’s power has grown since 1997 when he became head of the National Trade Council. It is widely known that he is suspicious of economic liberalization. Maung Aye also set up his own intelligence network after two bombing incidents in Rangoon, saying that he could no longer trust Khin Nyunt’s Directorate of Defence Services Intelligence (DDSI). However, Maung Aye, the former Eastern Region Commander, may find that the battle in Rangoon with Khin Nyunt is hard to win. But the army is behind him and last year the general went to India, China and Laos, prompting analysts to suggest that Maung Aye was consolidating his power base both inside and outside of Burma. Previously, Maung Aye had rarely travelled outside of the country.
Khin Nyunt’s role in the 1988 massacre still haunts him
and analysts believe that his rivals also see this
as a chance to bring him down in the future.
To compare the two generals, Khin Nyunt seems more sophisticated. Some diplomats, foreign experts and Burma watchers say he is reform-minded. However, those who have been to prison for political involvement are concerned about Khin Nyunt’s ruthless policies. Kyaw Zwa, a former political prisoner, recalled his meeting with an intelligence officer in Thayawaddy prison in 1998. Intelligence officers, who have been working in various parts of Burma, have direct contacts with Khin Nyunt, who decides the fate of each political prisoner, according to Kyaw Zwa.
"He decides who should be released (from prison) and who shouldn’t," said the former political prisoner who spent 5 years in Insein and three years in Thayawaddy prison. Over the last 12 years, many political prisoners have been released but members of hard-line groups remain incarcerated and their prison sentences have been extended. When pressure builds up from outside, Khin Nyunt releases some prominent political prisoners who he thinks no longer pose a threat to the regime. "That’s how he and the OSS play a game in order to ease international pressure," added Kyaw Zwa.
In fact, Khin Nyunt's role in the 1988 massacre still haunts him and analysts believe that his rivals also see this as a chance to bring him down in the future. In 1988, then-Colonel Khin Nyunt played an important role in controlling the public and crushing pro-democracy activists. He and his DDSI were crucial in paving the way for the army to stage a coup. Thus he was dubbed "the prince of evil."
Apart from Khin Nyunt, Than Shwe, who is now head of the SPDC, was also involved in crushing the pro-democracy movement. Maung Aye, who at the time was based in Shan State, had no direct involvement in the suppression of the 1988 uprising.
Analysts believed that Khin Nyunt and Than Shwe, who were both involved in the massacre, are temporary allies, though these two also don’t see eye to eye. Than Shwe is reported to be a devout Buddhist and reportedly ill, but he is also a master at playing internal politics and creating division within the top leadership, according to an inside source close to the army faction. "He is good at manipulating his sub-ordinates," said the source.
Reports last year suggested that Khin Nyunt was keeping his distance from Than Shwe, and also that he confided in his associates and visiting guests that he does not agree with some of the SPDC Chairman’s grandiose projects, including the construction of a huge marble Buddha image in Rangoon. He had to go along with them only because of Than Shwe’s order, Khin Nyunt reportedly told some visitors.
Now that he is 68, Than Shwe may be looking to leave a positive legacy. He has done at least one good thing: In 1995, he signed a paper to free Suu Kyi, who had been under house arrest since 1989. This has prompted analysts to suggest that he and Secretary One see eye to eye on the subject of resuming talks with Suu Kyi.
Indeed, this is a bitter internal conflict among the three top leaders, who control the entire nation with fear. "They are good at managing fear," said a foreign businessman in Thailand. Yet fear of losing power may make them blind and foolish, and unless genuine reforms take place in the country soon, their future is as bleak as that of Burma itself.