Troubled Junta
Source : Bertil Lintner, Nayan Chanda, and Sadanand Dhume,Far Eastern Economic Review,(June-29)
A power struggle looms in Rangoon's military leadership. Neighbours are watching closely
BURMA'S GEN. THAN SHWE never wished to become head of the country's military junta. As deputy chairman he was forced into the role in 1992 after his late predecessor, Gen. Saw Maung, was forced to step down on health grounds. But in light of recent reports that Than Shwe himself is now seriously ill, attention is shifting to his two closest underlings, army commander Gen. Maung Aye and intelligence chief Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt. If Than Shwe goes, diplomats in Rangoon expect a long-standing power struggle between the two to spill into the open.
The significance of such a development is more than a matter of domestic concern. A power struggle could change Rangoon's relationship with the outside world, most notably with China and its main strategic rival in the region, India. Khin Nyunt is seen as pro-Chinese. Maung Aye, however, is said to be concerned about Burma's heavy dependence on arms supplies from China, and Chinese migration into northern parts of the country. While senior Indian officials are reluctant to characterize Maung Aye as anti-Chinese, New Delhi has nonetheless been conducting a charm offensive to encourage him to take a more independent foreign-policy stance.
Signs that Maung Aye is preparing for the post-Than Shwe era are already evident. Thai intelligence officials say he recently visited the Mong Yawn base of the United Wa State Army, where he informed combatants that in future they would have to report to him. The UWSA, a former rebel army of 10,000-20,000 fighters that made peace with the government in 1989, has so far been close to Khin Nyunt. It controls most of the Golden Triangle's lucrative drugs trade and has close ties with China.
India's main concern in Burma has long been China. New Delhi has sought to counter Beijing's influence by supporting Burma's pro-democracy forces. But since 1993, India has shifted its strategy out of concern that its policies had achieved little while pushing Burma closer to Beijing. "While our hearts are with the pro-democracy movement, we can't wait for them to come to power," says an overseas-based Indian diplomat, who asked not to be identified. "We have to counter China's influence here and now."
INDIA REAPS ECONOMIC BENEFIT
Swaran Singh, a Burma expert at New Delhi's Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, says that in the early 1990s, Burma was seen as another province of China. "Today," he says, "it is completely different. Asean [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] and India have also moved in."
Part of that new policy appears to be to exploit the rift between Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt. In January this year, Maung Aye paid a highly publicized visit to India--notably without Khin Nyunt. Since then it has emerged that he offered military cooperation to help tackle cross-border insurgencies in India's volatile northeastern states. Government officials in New Delhi say India has been supplying nonlethal military aid to Burma in return, including boots and combat gear for soldiers. India has also leased helicopters.
Indian companies have also begun to promote trade and investment in Burma. In late May, Bombay industrialist G.L. Goenka headed a business delegation to Rangoon. The visitors discussed projects from copper exploration near the Indian border to a natural-gas pipeline from Burma to India. Government officials in New Delhi say talks are at an advanced stage on a 1,000-megawatt hydroelectric project on the Chindwin River that would supply power to both countries.
Maung Aye also played a tough negotiator during a trip to Beijing this month. China and Burma had been expected to conclude an accord during the trip, providing China's southwestern provinces with access to the Indian Ocean via the Bhamo river port in northern Burma. But a firm deal wasn't reached. "While China will get some concessions, it won't get all that it asked for," says a Thailand-based Asian diplomat.
For Burma's pro-democracy movement, the emerging power struggle and the big-power games being played out in back rooms during foreign visits are bad news. "It shows that more and more countries in the region now believe that the junta is there to stay," says the Thailand-based diplomat. And Maung Aye, a military hardliner, may be better poised to ensure this state of affairs prevails than the relatively more outgoing and mundane Khin Nyunt.