No Quick Fix For the Junta
With the military regime's biggest shake-up since 1997 and a recent escalation of heroin exports, there's clearly turmoil in the junta
By Rodney Tasker and Bertil Lintner/BANGKOK and CHIANG MAI
Far Eastern Economic Review -Issue cover-dated November 29, 2001
BURMA'S MILITARY REGIME has done its best in recent years to show the world it is strong and unified. Behind the scenes, however, is an escalating struggle to take power from two leaders who, due to age and failing health, are expected to depart from the scene. For evidence, look at two recent changes in Burma: the recent sacking of seven top officials and the increase in the amount of heroin flowing across the Burmese border to regional and Western markets.While the latest bout of political turmoil may not change much about Burma, the current new wave of drugs has international consequences.
The power struggle in Rangoon pits the deputy chairman of the ruling junta, army commander Gen. Maung Aye, against Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt, the regime's first secretary and head of military intelligence. The two men are vying for authority held by strongman Ne Win and junta leader Than Shwe. The health of Ne Win, now 90, has become particularly fragile. Than Shwe, in his late 60s, is also ailing and thought to be ready to leave the scene.
Their departure will clear the way for Maung Aye or Khin Nyunt to step in. Khin Nyunt is an adept politician who is the regime's most familiar face in the regional arena. But though he heads the military intelligence apparatus and has close links with the 12,000-15,000-strong United Wa State Army, his support is considered no match for the overbearing military muscle of Maung Aye, who controls the Burmese army's 400,000 troops.
Maung Aye is a blunt, insular army chief--on November 15 he turned down an invitation to visit Thailand because he was too busy with internal affairs, according to the Thai Defence Ministry. Khin Nyunt, on the other hand, has cultivated his image as an outgoing politician, has visited Thailand twice this year and appears conscious of the international concern for a dialogue between the military regime and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi .
But while Khin Nyunt may be seen as less of an isolationist than Maung Aye, his pursuit of recognition outside Burma is not a sign of potential democratization so much as a ploy to guarantee his political survival at home. Whoever wins out in the current power struggle, one thing seems certain: The Burmese military's 40-year hold on political power will remain, as will Burma's repressive system and its worsening economic malaise. As one Rangoon-based diplomat puts it, nothing is more important to the Burmese generals than their institution and its grip on power.
The purge in early November of seven of the country's leaders--two powerful generals and five less influential ministers--was widely seen as an effort to cleanse the leadership of corruption, for which the two most senior figures to go, third secretary of the junta Lt.-Gen. Win Myint and Military Affairs Minister Lt.-Gen. Tin Hla, were known to have been under investigation. Burma's deputy intelligence chief, Maj.-Gen. Kyaw Win, told a press briefing that the generals were dismissed for a "violation of state policy," but did not elaborate.The purge was seen by some observers as an attempt to find scapegoats for the country's economic straits. The Burmese currency, the kyat, has dropped to nearly 800 to the dollar from 400 a year ago. The price of rice in Rangoon has increased by up to 36% over the past six months.
LARGEST PURGE SINCE 1997
The shake-up was the largest since November 1997, when the entire junta was replaced by the present State Peace and Development Council. That was widely seen as a response to concerns about corruption voiced by businessmen from Singapore, a partner in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and a leading investor in Burma. The latest reshuffle came, according to a Rangoon-based diplomat, after similar complaints by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia.
This analysis suggests that Khin Nyunt, as the leader most likely to respond to outside pressures, had a hand in the purge. The view is supported by a senior Thai intelligence official who points out that some of the recently fired ministers were critical of Khin Nyunt's efforts to keep a line of communication open to democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi. Maung Aye is thought to share that critical view.
Although Khin Nyunt may still wield influence within the junta, in this regime it is Maung Aye's command of the army that dominates. The unceremonious removal of Win Myint and Tin Hla, and the subsequent replacement of Win Myint by northeastern military commander Maj.-Gen. Thein Sein, would likely have been agreed by the top three generals, as would the reported concurrent promotion of up to 10 out of 12 regional commanders to posts in the Defence Ministry in Rangoon.
THE HEROIN TRADE
Until the shake-up, divisions between Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt and their followers had been most evident in eastern frontier areas. The rise in heroin exports stems largely from fears among the drug-producing Wa ethnic minority in northeastern Shan state that Khin Nyunt may not be around much longer.
The United Wa State Army--Khin Nyunt's main support base--is regarded by anti-narcotics officials in Thailand as primarily responsible for the new wave of heroin production and smuggling through Thailand, China and India.Intelligence reports suggest the Wa are now trying to make as much money as possible before an impending power struggle which their protector, Khin Nyunt, may well lose. The Wa also produce methamphetamines: 600 million tablets of the stimulant are expected to be smuggled over the border for Thai consumption this year--a 20% increase over last year."The Wa have to step it up now, because the Rangoon situation is so uncertain," says a senior Thai army intelligence officer.
World heroin supplies originating from opium stockpiles in Afghanistan are also reported to have increased in recent months. But these can be expected to drop significantly because of the war there. Some drug officials in Thailand think that Burmese output might also eventually dwindle as the power struggle intensifies.
"Khin Nyunt is struggling like mad," says a Western intelligence official. Whether the general is backing accelerated heroin production by the Wa in order to build up his war chest for a battle with Maung Aye, or to build up his retirement fund in case he is ousted, the Wa appear to be trying to make money while they can.
Maung Aye, making use of the forces of the Burmese army, appears to be retaliating. While drug exports have increased, the flow of both heroin and methamphetamines is now being slowed within Burma because of the rivalry, according to Thai and Western intelligence officials. Khin Nyunt's military intelligence officers are reported now to be more directly involved in drug operations across the border, but many are also said to be defecting to army units loyal to Maung Aye.
Furthermore, in recent weeks Wa traffickers, who in the past have paid off military intelligence officers loyal to Khin Nyunt for safe passage, are now reportedly being stopped at Burmese army checkpoints and told to hand over their loads of narcotics.
Maung Aye is known to have hated the Wa, regarded as tough fighters, since his days in the 1980s as a field commander battling insurgencies. One Thai senior military intelligence officer says: "If Maung Aye takes power and tries to disarm the Wa army there could be one hell of a fight."