I have never witnessed a turn of events like the present in which relations between Burma and Thailand have fallen to their lowest in decades. As a long time observer of both Burma and Thailand, I think the fault lies on both sides for the current tensions.
The previous Chuan government never bothered to engage directly with the Burmese military junta as they felt they were not adhering to basic democratic principles. Previous Thai governments (with the exception of Chuan's) have always appeased the military junta by way of special close relations with this or that Burmese general.
Thailand made the first blunder when it under-estimated the rise of General Maung Aye to number two in the junta line up. Instead of reaching out to Maung Aye, the Thai government focus was mainly directed at Lt-General Khin Nyunt, the intelligence chief and number three.
With the arrival of the Thaksin government, Thailand's foreign policy with Burma shifted back to the old way of appeasement and one-on-one engagement. To erase their mistake of overlooking Maung Aye, Thaksin invited him for an official state visit. In the past, Maung Aye has repeatedly declined invitations to visit Thailand. This was due to a bad experience he had with a Thai general when he was a regional commander trying to discuss border disputes. Sources say Maung Aye was snubbed by the Thai general and this led him to make a proclamation that "I'll never ever visit Thailand".
Contrary to the suggestion that Maung Aye is against the ethnic Wa (the ya ba manufacturers), he actually enjoys close relations with them and other ethnic groups that are on the Burmese government side. Maung Aye's long years as a regional commander in the north-east enabled him to foster and cultivate relations with various ethnic groups. This is another oversight on the Thai's part - whether purely an oversight or intentional is not known.
Maung Aye was greeted with red carpet treatment in Thailand and had an audience with His Majesty the King. At the time it was reported that Burma and Thailand were entering a new era of bilateral relations after the past debacle of dissident Burmese students taking over the Burmese Embassy. Immediately after Maung Aye left Thailand, it was reported he had given the OK for the Thai army to cross its border to search for and destroy all of the Wa's drug manufacturing laboratories.Within days it was reported the Shan State Army (SSA), an ethnic group fighting against the Burmese regime, had launched a surprise attack and overrun several Burmese outposts along the border.
The reaction from Rangoon was swift and vengeful. The Burmese junta claimed the SSA along with regular Thai soldiers had attacked the Burmese outposts together. The Thai army categorically denied the accusation. Since then the junta has cursed Thailand for its support of the SSA.
Why the Burmese anger? First, Maung Aye was given red carpet treatment and an audience with his Majesty the King and signed a series of agreements to resolve various issues. Within days of his departure, Thai newspapers reported he had given Thailand the "go ahead" to enter Burmese territory to pursue Wa drug traffickers. Then, the SSA made surprise lightning attacks and captured several Burmese outposts with or without the Thai army's complicity.
From their own intelligence findings, it appeared the SSA was assisted by the Thai army through artillery support and personnel. Around the same time, the Thai army had employed thousands of soldiers plus armoured vehicles and artillery for an exercise which further aroused suspicions. The junta was outraged. Maung Aye, now regarding his visit as a sham, felt he was being stabbed in the back by his host.
This was compounded by his feeling that the Thai media or intelligence officers were trying to sow discord among top junta generals by saying he was against the Wa and had approved Thai soldiers entering Burmese territory. Unlike past tensions, the Burmese are truly enraged. People were told to attend rallies to denounce both the SSA terrorist band of drug traffickers and Thailand for supporting them and intruding on Burmese soil.Furthermore, Burmese people were told to hoist their national flag to show patriotism. The danger here is that Burma has never told its people to hate Thailand. Burmese history books have never glorified its past victories over Thailand. Instead of the name Thailand, Yodaya - the historical ancient enemy name - is now being used by all media in Burma.
Initially, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh remained silent when Burma started firing off accusations and comments that were deemed insulting to past Thai monarchs. Their silence wasn't so much because of their personal or business ties with Burma, but rather the result of shock at the turn of events. Let's suppose the Thai army did cross into Burma and both Thaksin and Chavalit found out the truth - do they come clean and apologise to Burma or deny it at all costs?
Thaksin and Chavalit had no choice but to deny the junta's allegations. In return, the junta called the Thai leaders "bare- faced liars". Maybe the Thai army did do something, but the Thai government cannot admit to it. Even Chavalit, who is supposed to be very close to the junta, was not spared this time as he was also being called "insincere and a liar" by the junta.Now, Thais and Burmese are being told to dislike and hate each other by their leaders.
David Sterling, a Western businessman, is a long-time observer and frequent visitor to Rangoon and Bangkok.